RBI Deputy Governor’s inflation forecast
While every forecast carries a risk of error, there is no “systemic bias” in the central bank’s inflation forecast, said Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta.
The central bank uses various models and expert consultations to arrive at its inflation forecasts, and that inaccurate forecasts are not a local phenomenon but a “global phenomenon”, said Gupta.
Deputy Governor’s Statement: The central bank is considering releasing balance of payments data on a monthly basis. Currently, these figures are released on a quarterly basis, Gupta said. She made this statement amid significant changes in global trade policies. The balance of payments provides an indication of a country’s external position.
It is noteworthy that concerns about inflation projections have arisen due to the overestimation of the figures. Critics argue that this has prevented the RBI from further cutting policy rates in recent months.
The upcoming revisions by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation will be helpful for the Reserve Bank of India, she added.
